Job market paper: "Fraud and Legitimacy: The Economics of Autocratic Elections"

By: Anastasiia Arbuzova

Abstract

Why do autocrats commit seemingly excessive electoral fraud when victory is virtually guaranteed? This paper examines whether an autocratic government can use fraud to improve its perceived legitimacy, especially when it is damaged by unrest or unpopular policies. Through a survey experiment with a representative sample of Russian voters, I demonstrate that reported election outcomes can influence voters' perceptions: information about high (low) turnout increases (decreases) trust in the government. Next, analyzing data from Russian legislative elections, I identify electoral manipulations via the excess integer values method and hypothesize that legitimacy concerns can explain their spatial distribution. Utilizing a novel dataset on the 2018 anti-pension reform protests, I provide evidence suggesting that protests informed fraud allocation: places with higher protest participation saw an increase in electoral fraud in subsequent legislative elections.

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