Risk revealed: cautionary tales, understanding and communication

Session 5: Risk Modelling and Machine Learning

Abstract: The title of my talk refers to a forthcoming book, to be published by Cambridge University Press, co-authored with Valérie Chavez-Demoulin (Lausanne) and Marius Hofert (Waterloo). I will present some examples of risk-based decision-making and show how statistical tools from the realm of Extreme Value Theory can be used as part of the solution. The current pandemic has clearly shown that the communication of scientific evidence has a difficult stand in the ubiquitous environment of social media. I will highlight this struggle.
(Based on joint work with V. Chavez-Demoulin and Marius Hofert.)