What will it take for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia to join the EU?

20 January, 2025

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has intensified the urgency of European Union (EU) enlargement, bringing Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia closer to potential membership. A new policy brief, based on discussions at SITE 2024 Development Day conference, highlights the political, economic, and security challenges these countries face as they seek EU integration.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed the EU’s perspective on enlargement, making it a matter of strategic security rather than just economic integration. At SITE 2024 Development Day conference, policymakers and experts gathered to discuss how Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia could navigate their paths toward EU membership.

Ukraine has taken significant steps to align with European values, viewing integration as both a political and existential necessity in the face of Russian aggression. Moldova is progressing in governance reforms but remains vulnerable to Russian hybrid threats, including election interference. Meanwhile, Georgia's European ambitions are challenged by political instability and increasing Russian influence.

Key points

Governance and reform hurdles: Ukraine and Moldova have advanced in governance reforms, but judicial independence, corruption, and public administration remain key obstacles. Georgia, meanwhile, faces democratic backsliding, making EU alignment more difficult.
Russian hybrid threats: Disinformation campaigns, election interference, and economic pressure from Russia pose significant risks to all three countries, undermining democratic resilience and public support for EU integration.
Economic alignment and reconstruction: Ukraine's war-torn economy needs major reconstruction, while Moldova and Georgia must ensure their industries align with EU standards to benefit from single-market access.

This policy brief underscores that while EU integration offers significant opportunities, it requires sustained reforms, strong democratic institutions, and resilience against external threats. The coming years will determine whether Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia can successfully navigate this complex path toward European membership.

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Meet the authors

Cecilia Smitt Meyer: Research Assistant at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE).
Anders Olofsgård: Deputy Director at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), and Associate Professor at the Stockholm School of Economics.

Published by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and the FREE Network in January 2025.

Photo: Davis Plotnieks