Selene Ghisolfi, Ingvild Almås, Justin Sandefur, Tillmann von Carnap, Jesse Heitner, and Tessa Bold, researchers at IIES, CGDev, Aceso Global and Bocconi University, propose a method to extrapolate available estimates from hardest-hit western countries to new contexts with limited data infrastructure. They adjust the estimates first for the distribution of sex, age, and relevant comorbidities for 187 countries from the Global Burden of Disease( GBD) dataset, and subsequently also for health system capacity, by incorporating regional differences in the relative odds of infection fatality from childhood influenza. The adjusted regional estimates of the predicted COVID-19 IFR range from 0.43% in Western Sub- Saharan Africa to 1.83% for Eastern Europe.

Link to the paper here.

Posted by Maria Perrotta Berlin,

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