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STOCKHOLM SCHOOL
OF ECONOMICS

SITE Seminar | The dynamics of evasion: The price cap on Russian oil exports and the amassing of the shadow fleet

Welcome to the first SITE Seminar of this year. We kick-off with Julien Daubanes, Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark . Prof. Daubanes will present his working paper entitled "The dynamics of evasion: The price cap on Russian oil exports and the amassing of the shadow fleet". Join the seminar to learn more!
Starttid: 2025-01-21 at 12:00
Sluttid: 2025-01-21 at 13:00
Tidszon: CET
Plats: SITE library, 9th floor, at SSE

Working paper title: The dynamics of evasion: The price cap on Russian oil exports and the amassing of the shadow fleet

Abstract

By: Diego S. Cardoso, Stephen W. Salant & Julien Daubanes

To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s expansion to assess various sanctions. While all sanctions reduce the present value of Russia’s profits, we find that the tighter the ceiling and the tighter the enforcement, the less harm sanctions impose, contradicting conventional wisdom based on Hotelling lemma.

Read the working paper to learn more >>

About the speaker

Julien Daubanes, Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU).

Julien Daubanes serves as an Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) within the Department of Technology, Management, and Economics. Additionally, he holds positions as an External Researcher at MIT's Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR) and as a CESifo Research Fellow. He earned both his Master of Science in Economic Theory and Econometrics (2004) and his Ph.D. in Economics (2008) from the Toulouse School of Economics, where he was awarded the 2008 thesis prize by the French Economic Association.

His research primarily explores environmental economics, focusing on the responses of energy markets to climate policies and corporate voluntary initiatives, including green finance. His work has been featured in esteemed peer-reviewed journals such as the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, and Energy Economics, among others.

Learn more about the speaker >>

Interested in attending the SITE Seminar at SSE or online via Zoom?

The link to the seminar will be distributed by invitation only. If you are interested in attending the seminar – please contact site@hhs.se. Follow the instructions below:

  • Type the subject box with “SITE seminar *INSERT SEMINAR TITLE*”
  • Indicate your affiliation and field of interest
  • Please also indicate if you want to attend in person or online

For registered applicants, a Zoom link will be provided prior to the event via email with further instructions.

Photo: Photo Magistr, Shutterstock

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