Breaking away from Russian energy control

For decades, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were part of the Russian-dominated BRELL electricity network, which also included Belarus. The decision to exit BRELL was first declared a strategic priority in 2007, and by 2018, a plan was established to join the Continental European Synchronous Area via Poland. This process required years of preparation and significant investment, much of which was supported by the European Commission.

The transition was completed on February 7, 2025, when the Baltic states fully disconnected from BRELL. In the immediate aftermath, they operated in "island mode," relying entirely on their domestic electricity generation. Their long-term goal, however, is to integrate more deeply into the European grid to enhance energy security and lessen dependence on external electricity sources.

Key highlights from the policy brief

• Energy independence creates short-term trade restrictions. While the desynchronization diminished Russian influence over Baltic energy markets, it also restricted the region’s capacity to trade electricity in the near term due to the necessity of operating in “island mode.” Limited access to imports has driven up energy prices and compelled the Baltic states to depend more on their domestic power generation for stability.
  
  
• Infrastructure sabotage poses a new security threat. The recent severing of underwater cables in the Baltic Sea has raised alarms about energy security. With fewer backup connections to the European grid, any additional disruptions could result in outages or require emergency interventions.
  
  
• Decentralization could be essential for long-term energy security. The Baltic states are currently seeking ways to strengthen the resilience of their power grid, including investments in nuclear energy, wind power, and decentralized microgrids. Ukraine’s experience with Russian attacks has demonstrated that smaller, more dispersed energy sources are more challenging to disable than centralized power plants.

Meet the authors

• Ewa Lazarczyk: Reykjavik University, SIF – Sustainability Institute and Forum
• Chloé Le Coq: University of Paris Panthéon-Assas (CRED), Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE)

Photo: JU.STOCKER, Shutterstock